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The Jellyfish Never Dances with the Shrimp

Ross Silver • Dec 07, 2019

The Jellyfish Never Dances With the Shrimp
By: Ross Silver, CEO

I was looking up Japanese proverbs and came across this beauty, “The Jellyfish Never Dances with the Shrimp.” Supposedly, it means enmity is inborn and natural, it can never be eliminated. Then I learned that shrimp can and will aid jellyfish, wherein a shrimp will eat parasites off a jellyfish and therefore they can co-exist together and even thrive together. So what are we to make of this? Whose side do we take? Seems like the shrimp is the obvious choice, but why? 

Obviously, the answer is complicated and for those of you wondering if I am writing this from a mental institution, you would be incorrect. I am still here and kicking, pulse still intact while questions of mental acuity remain. In an event, the point of all this gibberish is the correlation between interest rates (the jellyfish), in particular the yield curve and its shape and equities (the shrimp). 

Per an article on CNBC.com, “When the yield on the 10-year Treasury note earlier this year fell at a breakneck speed from 2.75% to 1.6% over six months, it triggered a host of alarms across Wall Street. The plunge was so severe that it sent the yield on the 10-year note under that of the 3-month bill and 2-year note, a rare phenomenon known as “inversion.”
Though the inversion between the 10-year and 2-year proved short-lived, the yield on the 3-month bill held above the 10-year for months. The spread widened into positive territory earlier in October for the first time since July.
Investors usually demand higher interest payments for agreeing to lend Uncle Sam money over longer time periods, so deviations from the status quo are thought to be reliable, though not perfect, recession predictors. Still, analysis shows there is often a significant lag before a recession hits and an economic downturn ensues.

Recessions are almost always preceded by a steepening of the yield curve, though not every instance of yield curve steepening leads to an economic downturn. Looking at the inversions of the US curve since 1978, a re-steepening (un-inverting) of the curve seems to occur during (1980, 1981) or preceding US recessions (1990, 2001, 2007). To me it sure looks like the yield curve is steepening and as such equities as a whole may be in their final inning of this amazing 10 year bull market we have experienced. With that said perhaps the yield curve is steepening as a result of growth and general economic health. Which is it? I think we will find out in 2020, be prepared for some volatility.

Silver Sports Desk

The Silver older boys are in basketball currently and they are having a lot of fun. I coach both of their teams which I love. My oldest is in 2nd grade and he is still learning that dribbling is necessary and his jump shot looks more like a heave than a shot but that heave goes into the basket. We are working on shooting and dribbling but his natural athleticism makes him a standout in the league. My kindergartner is also learning the nuances of the game and while he is still learning he is pretty dominant in his kindergarten league which features occasional passes and dribbling. Ski and snowboarding is up next for them and I have them enrolled in a weekend ski/snowboard class. 2032 Olympics here we come ☺

My daughter is going to get on skis for the first time this season and she is the most agile of the Silver pack. I expect her to be acing double black diamond runs by the end of the ski season. My youngest will be on the sled this winter and I fear he may ditch the sled for a snowboard before the season is over given he has no fear, he is 2 years old.

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