On February 28, 2026, United States  and Israeli forces began conducting joint strikes on Iran, in what the United States dubbed Operation Epic Fury. This conflict is primarily driven over Iran’s nuclear program and its perceived threats to U.S. allies in the region, particularly Israel and Arab states. Diplomatic efforts to negotiate a nuclear deal have failed, leading to military action. What does this overseas conflict mean for the stock market?

Over the weekend, oil prices surged above $100 per barrel as the escalating conflict disrupted production and shipping routes. Raising the fear of the tumultuous energy markets of broader inflation shock. In the United States, retail gasoline prices have risen to their highest level since August 2024. President Trump describes the surge in oil prices as “short term” and a “small price to pay” for destroying Iran’s nuclear threat. President Trump assures that prices will fall rapidly when “the destruction of Iran’s nuclear threat is over.”  Case in point, on March 9, 2026, crude oil prices skyrocketed to $119.50/ barrel. The following day, the same crude oil plummeted to $88.54/ barrel. This significant drop came after President Trump suggested that the conflict would end “very soon.”

According to Charles Schwab, there are three potential outcomes for the US-Iran conflict, an upside case, a moderate case and a downcase case. The upside case is defined by a quick end to military operations, with energy production and shipments normalizing and market pricing returning toward pre-conflict levels. In the moderate case, military operations continue for several weeks at reduced intensity before winding down. Oil prices may remain elevated, but there is no major disruption to global supplies. The downside case presents risk to portfolios with a prolonged conflict disrupting global energy supplies and pushing oil prices sharply higher for a sustained period. That would raise recession risk by squeezing household purchasing power and corporate margins while also lifting inflation. 

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group states, “Historically, what in the near term seems like a geopolitical crisis tends to be largely resolved from a market perspective over the ensuing six months…near-term volatility and potential weakness is common, but as you go out the returns are more positive.”

On March 9, 2026, Wall Street stocks rebounded  their way back from a steep selloff to close higher. This rebound came in the eleventh hour as ‌U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran could be close to ending. All three indexes staged a late comeback after President Trump announced that the war was very far ahead of his initial four-to-five week estimated time frame.

To be sure, if the Iran conflict goes on for a while, it could hurt global oil flows and therefore affect stocks. According to Stubbs at AlphaCore Wealth Advisory  a one month conflict would be manageable. “If there’s going to be a wider conflict and a longer disruption, then eventually parts of the equity market will start to pay attention.” 

"There is still an awful lot of uncertainty out there regarding ​the duration of the conflict, …" said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of ​CFRA Research in New York. "Again today, seeing such a relative reversal in price movements indicates that investors are looking for any opportunity to jump back into the equity markets."

Tickers to consider:    JTAI, PPCB, FBRX, ATLX, BMNR, AGPU

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