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December Newsletter: Trumpmania Now, What Later?

Ross Silver • Dec 16, 2016
Many friends of mine feared a Trumpocracy and thought it was a given markets would crater and America as we knew it was destined for the gutter. I vehemently disagreed with this notion as I thought Trump's economic policies would help and not hurt the economy, it is also why I voted for him. Yes, I am one of the deplorable ones who voted for Trump. At the end of the day, my vote did not matter given Oregon is and will likely always be a bleeding heart liberal state. East of the Cascades, the Cascades being a mountain range that runs through the center of the State of Oregon, it is a different story as that is "red" country or Republican country and where I live. Where I live, people own firearms, hunt and live off the land, foreign concepts to the common coastal city dweller who prefers their meat from the grocery store rather than coming from nature itself. To be clear, I vote with my wallet and I think less government is better than more government. I am by no means a right wing mad man, more so a centrist who is interested in paying as little as possible in taxes and ensuring the environment is kept clean and unharmed from human stupidity. Hopefully Trump steers clear of the progress President Obama made as it relates to the environment, meaning he does not repeal many of the environment related issues Obama accomplished while in office, fingers crossed!

Back to the markets and what is going on. Thomson Reuters Lipper’s fund macro-groups (including both mutual funds and exchange-traded funds [ETFs]) took in $11.6 billion of net new money for the fund-flows week-ended Wednesday, December 7. This marked the fourth straight week of net inflows for U.S. funds, during which time they grew their coffers by $43.6 billion. The positive flows for the past week were driven by money market funds (+$14.7 billion) and taxable bond funds (+$1.1 billion), while municipal bonds funds (-$2.2 billion) and equity funds (-$2.0 billion) both suffered net outflows.

The post-election rally continues for the equity markets; this rally is tied to Trump’s business-friendly campaign promises of lower corporate taxes, less regulation, and a bump in infrastructure spending as I noted earlier. I don't see why this momentum will not continue into 2017 and beyond...if Trump delivers!

Equity ETFs (+$7.9 billion) pushed their consecutive net-inflows streak to nine weeks, including over $40 billion of positive flows since the election. This is insane to me. ETF's are the dumbest investment possible and should only be used as a hedging instrument. Buying an ETF is the equivalent to buying every home in a neighborhood. Some homes in the neighborhood will be worth more than others given their location, size and care. Why also buy the home that is dilapidated and not valuable if you don't have to? Well, when you buy an ETF you buy the good homes and the bad.

Investors continued to pull money from safe–haven assets, municipal bond mutual funds (-$2.1 billion) experienced their fourth consecutive weekly net outflows over $2 billion. Funds in the Intermediate Muni Debt Funds (-$578 million) and High Yield Muni Debt Funds (-$469 million) classifications were the hardest hit during the week. This comes as no surprise and I expect this to continue given how bullish investors are. Investing is fun again, except in microcaps. Microcaps face a slew of issues including poor management, limited funding sources and as a result have been a nightmare for the past two years. This will change when people begin to sour on the large and midcap names and chase alpha and pick up microcaps. My guess is this happens sometime around Q3 of 2017, when the Fed Funds rate might be 1.25% considering how hot this market is, lol.

Ross's Random Musings

I am terrified for the holiday season and I will tell you why, because I have three little monsters under the age of six that will be tugging at me and yelling Dad at me 100 times a day when I take the last week of the month off. Why hasn't someone invented something that can distract children and be healthy and help them grow? Come on technology titans, help a Dad out! How about a flying shuttle they can board and fly around looking at the neighborhood and be kept occupied and fed while I sleep or watch one college football game. Wouldn't that be awesome!

I am very guilty of adoring my children and I can't wait to take them sledding and skiing in a couple of weeks, they will go bananas!  Being a parent is the hardest thing I have ever done in my life and I pour every drop of my being into my children and I know the reward will come later when they become people. Everyone tells me to cherish these moments as they go by in an instant, that is a blatant lie and the next person that tells me that can spend the day at my house, the most active home on Earth. Santa is bringing my two boys a cement truck and an excavator toy and my daughter a doll set. My boys have torn up our front lawn to make it a construction site which is a riot but to some of neighbors it is an outrage. I have actually been reported to my HOA for not adhering to the aesthetic code of our neighborhood. In response to those I "offended" I offered to send my boys over to their house with a bag of rocks and paint bulls eyes on their home windows and let my sons fire away. Some people in life need to smile more!

Have a wonderful holiday season and keep an eye on our stock of the month page, https://sylvacap.com/stock-of-the-month. My picks have been on fire, UIS was up 42% last month and XXIA (who will benefit due to CES hype, in my opinion) is up 23% so far this month.

Stocks to watch:

Wells Fargo (WFC) - banks soaring, a leader
Vuzix Corp (VUZI) - M300 being shipped, hope adoption is strong
Snipp Interactive (SPN.V) - revs exploding and my guess a takeout in 2017
Facebook (FB) - absolute beast
Insignia Systems (ISIG) - a standout in the industry
Oracle Corp (ORCL) - I expect a strong 2017
CLS Holdings (CLSH) - waiting on permits and game changing tech
Sysroex Global (SYRX) - what a run earlier this month, IOT a white hot area
Goldman Sachs (GS) - the leader of banking stocks
Biogen (BIIB) - awesome combo of pipeline and drugs on market
AcelRx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ACRX) - a favorite idea of mine for 2017
Soligenix (SNGX) - just completed a financing and plans to move to Nasdaq
Gilead Sciences (GILD) - love this management team, acquisitions have been strong
Mast Therapeutics (MSTX) - has a strong balance sheet and optionality
Inovio (INO) - an industry leader and highly disruptive science
Replicel (RP.V) - I love autologous cell therapies, very compelling clinical pipeline
InMed Pharma (IN.CN) - Orphan disease candidate may reverse EB and other assets
GW Pharma (GWPH) - Largest cannabis company by market cap, compelling pipeline
Towerstream Corp (TWER) - Equipment in filed worth more than mkt cap
At&T (T) - Industry leader, I like the satellite tv acquisition
PeerLogix, Inc. (LOGX) - Highly disruptive tech and in a white hot adtech market
Qualcomm (QCOM) - mega cheap and institutions starting to take a look again
Fiserv, Inc (FISV) - Solid company
Jack Henry & Assoc (JKHY) - Growing top and bottom line
Cachet Financial (CAFN) - Looks like guidance of $8-$10M for '16 in the bag
Cummins Inc (CMI) - A nice spot to be in a shovel ready economy
Power Solutions Intl (PSIX) - Mgmt remains optimistic, could see this one be up 3x soon
Navistar Intl (NAVI) - Well run business
BioHiTech (BHTG) - Revolutionizing industry and well run company

This article has been prepared by Sylva International LLC (“Sylva”) based upon public information available about the topics mentioned. Sylva has not independently verified such information, and in addition, Sylva has been compensated by Companies mentioned in this newsletter for digital marketing services for up to a one year period. Statements in this article that are not historical facts are “forward-looking statements” that involve risks and uncertainties. Forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of words such as “opportunities,” “trends,” “potential,” “estimates,” “may,” “will,” “could,” “should,” “anticipates,” “expects” or comparable terminology or by discussions of strategy. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from the results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Additional risks, uncertainties and other factors are identified under the captions “Risk Factors” and “Special Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements” in each of the the Company’s reports filed from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the current fiscal year. Sylva and the Company's mentioned disclaim any intention or obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new or additional information, future events or otherwise. The Companies are solely responsible for the accuracy of that information. Information as to other companies has been prepared from publicly available information and has not been independently verified by Sylva.

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